17.5.2018.

PICK OF THE DAY

Wolfsburg - Kiel

Tip : 1&GG (home win and both to score)

Odd : 4.50

FT : 3:1 WIN!!!

Despite a 4-1 win over Cologne on the final day of the Bundesliga season, Wolfsburg found themselves in 16th and in the relegation play-off spot for the second year in a row. Coach Bruno Labbadia, who has guided the Wolves to just two wins since taking over (W2 D3 L6), is unlikely to make changes to the team named in that comfortable win. With top scorer Daniel Didavi listed as “touch and go”, all eyes will be on Liverpool-loanee Divock Origi, who is expected to lead up front once again. At the back, it will be down to duo Robin Knoche and USA international John Brooks to try and keep Bundesliga 2 top scorer Marvin Ducksch (18 goals) at bay.

At the other end of the pitch, Kiel look to finish off their 2017/18 campaign in remarkable fashion. Newcomers to the Bundesliga 2 at the start of the season, the North German outfit are pushing for a second consecutive promotion. Coach Markus Anfang, who will take over at Cologne following this play-off, made a number of changes for the final game of the season against Eintracht Braunschweig and still won that “meaningless” fixture 6-2, so both he and the fans will believe anything is possible here. Steven Lewerenz scored four in that game so will likely keep his place on the wing, while top scorer Ducksch should return as the lone forward.

So how does this one look in terms of betting? Well, you have to like the price on both teams to score on Thursday. Wolfsburg didn’t finish third from bottom in the Bundesliga for no reason, and the same applies for Kiel finishing third in the German second tier. Labbadia’s men have struggled at the back all season, and this has been no exception at home – Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in just 12% of their home outings. Meanwhile, Holstein Kiel boast the Bundesliga 2’s most dangerous offense (71 goals total in 34 games), whilst also head into this having scored a HUGE 17 goals over their last five league outings. Additionally, the statistics favour this too, with “both teams to score” landing in 76% of Wolfsburg’s home outings and 76% of Holstein Kiel’s away outings so far this term.

Even with the visitors in top form though, you have to remember that Kiel were a third-tier side just 12 months ago. As a Bundesliga club, Wolfsburg are the much stronger side on paper, and history is on their side too – the club defending their spot in the top flight has won 14 of the last 19 relegation play-offs. Wolfsburg’s 4-1 thumping of Cologne last weekend has shown their ability to perform against weaker opposition, and it’s interesting to see that the Wolves even beat Bundesliga 2 runners-up Nurnberg in the DFB Pokal third round earlier this season. Kiel lost 3-1 to Nurnberg just a few weeks back, ruining their chances of automatic promotion, and with even more pressure on them here, we feel Wolfburg should see the first leg through.
 Our prediction: a 3-1 Wolfsburg win.

Wolfsburg: Casteels – Verhaegh, Brooks, Knoche, William – Guilavogui, Arnold – Didavi, Malli, Brekalo – Origi

Coach: Bruno Labbadia

Holstein Kiel: Kronholm – Heidinger, Hoheneder, Czichos, Van den Bergh – Peitz – Schindler, Mühling, Kinsombi, Lewerenz – Ducksch

Coach: Markus Anfang